Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 13.456312 15.374856 17.432243 19.798186 22.439225 25.291965 28.601782
2025-09-28 10.114782 12.622511 15.516761 19.086357 23.351439 28.264116 34.329695
2025-10-05 8.895999 11.737989 15.172355 19.594551 25.100446 31.689850 40.128398
2025-10-12 7.908006 10.975246 14.838383 20.006896 26.679068 34.934389 45.843969
2025-10-19 6.936665 10.076478 14.180445 19.860895 27.430525 37.071050 50.161088
2025-10-26 6.123550 9.283193 13.557973 19.662857 28.037152 38.985094 54.216270
2025-11-02 5.520212 8.704439 13.150813 19.683780 28.882164 41.191859 58.691267
2025-11-09 5.050125 8.261892 12.880574 19.847044 29.892971 43.625719 63.532804
2025-11-16 4.578409 7.764969 12.480450 19.775369 30.538666 45.552979 67.723787
2025-11-23 4.139797 7.272689 12.039540 19.596350 30.993430 47.201268 71.557034
2025-11-30 3.829354 6.951209 11.825112 19.727043 31.885707 49.481669 76.344516
2025-12-07 3.642835 6.812606 11.878033 20.258069 33.385476 52.681387 82.554733
2025-12-14 3.305593 6.395672 11.466200 20.048046 33.764398 54.279089 86.536963
2025-12-21 2.875714 5.776296 10.675960 19.176813 33.061962 54.220224 88.047906
2025-12-28 2.754189 5.693277 10.769000 19.742254 34.640573 57.662154 94.928111
2026-01-04 2.613052 5.560095 10.763775 20.137268 35.954721 60.736487 101.344527
2026-01-11 2.399096 5.268370 10.458181 19.997533 36.377505 62.421809 105.656537
2026-01-18 2.196505 4.978189 10.131706 19.795800 36.676848 63.908608 109.691444
2026-01-25 2.043998 4.772254 9.941619 19.817740 37.345223 65.999127 114.737430
2026-02-01 1.923100 4.618843 9.836544 19.981650 38.256671 68.506952 120.521746
2026-02-08 1.782866 4.410848 9.611611 19.909666 38.747536 70.331103 125.245311
2026-02-15 1.642167 4.187406 9.339206 19.729547 39.031846 71.810877 129.438336
2026-02-22 1.547412 4.055611 9.236940 19.861028 39.872137 74.244879 135.272026